ROMNEY SURGING? – AT 10:14 A.M. ET: We stress that polls are only snapshots in history. The next snapshot can show a different picture. But this is interesting, from Scott Rasmussen today:
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows Mitt Romney earning 49% of the vote and President Obama attracting 44% support. Three percent (3%) would vote for a third party candidate, while another three percent (3%) are undecided.
The uptick for Romney comes as investor confidence has fallen six points in the wake of last week’s disappointing jobs report. Looking ahead five years, just 44% of Americans believe the nation’s economy will be stronger than it is today. That’s the lowest level of long-term optimism ever measured.
Still, it’s important to note that the presidential race has remained very close in recent weeks. Romney has had the advantage on six of the last 12 days, and Obama has held the edge six times. It remains to be seen whether today’s results represent a lasting change or are merely statistical noise. Romney’s support has remained within three points of 46% every day for more than two months. Obama’s numbers have stayed within two points of 45% every day for nearly two months.
Republicans have a three-point advantage on the Generic Congressional Ballot.
COMMENT: We'll look at other polls in the weeks ahead, but we remind ourselves that the election is six months away, many lifetimes in politics. Still, the Obama White House cannot be pleased with the current polling. Jimmy Carter was far ahead of Ronald Reagan at this point in the 1980 campaign.
But beware international developments. An American strike on Iran in the fall could unify the country behind Obama. So could any sudden upsurge in the economy.
But smile for a while.
May 8, 2012