WELCOME TO THE WHITE HOUSE – AT 8:29 A.M. ET:  President Obama has already invited the new French president, Francois Hollande, to the White House.  Indeed, the invitation was issued, somewhat unseemly, before the man's inauguration was even scheduled.  It will be in a few weeks. 

Obama's enthusiasm is understandable.  Hollande will be the first Socialist president of France in 17 years.  The first plank in his platform is to launch confiscatory taxation for those earning above a certain amount.  He also says he will give priority to economic growth.  He hasn't figured out the contradiction between those two planks. 

Markets are responding badly to Hollande, and Germany's Angela Merkel, clearly the most influential leader remaining in Europe, is making it clear to the French newbie, that return to theories of a socialist paradise are not in the cards.  France's desperate economic problems – overspending, underproduction, high unemployment, and a part of the work force that doesn't believe in work at all – are no different today than yesterday.

We worry mostly about shifts in France's foreign policy.  We've had, under Sarkozy, a kind of honeymoon with France.  Sarkozy is intensely pro-American, and has been utterly stalwart in opposing Iran's nuclear program.  Hollande does not appear to be crazy, but some of his supporters, including Islamic immigrant groups, are very problematical.  They represent the darkness of the old European left.  Hollande comes in just as the next, crucial round of talks with Iran on its nuclear program are to get started.  Will we lose a vital link in the Western alliance?  It is a critical question, which will soon be answered.  Sarkozy understood the possible need for military action, or at least the credible threat of military action, in dealing with Iran.  It is hard to believe that Hollande will support that position.

One by one, the pro-American leaders of Europe are being defeated in elections, replaced by slicksters promising that no real economic austerity is needed to get Europe out of its economic decline.  Just keep the checks from the government flowing and the defense budgets shrinking.

This is not a good day.  And we have a president who probably, if a bit secretly, welcomes the change in France.  That is part of what could be the start of a new, difficult phase in American foreign policy.

May 7,  2012