POLITICAL THREAT TO OBAMA – AT 9:04 A.M. ET: The Obama campaign is trying desperately to rebuild the coalition that brought victory to Obama in 2008, but not everyone is enthusiastic. Reports show that registration among minorities is down, something that could prove critical on election day. From the Washington Post:
The number of black and Hispanic registered voters has fallen sharply since 2008, posing a serious challenge to the Obama campaign in an election that could turn on the participation of minority voters.
In the 2008 election, robust turnout among black and Latino voters is credited with putting Obama over the top in key swing states, including Virginia and New Mexico.
Voter rolls typically shrink in non-presidential election years and registrations among whites fell at roughly the same rate, but this is the first time in nearly four decades that the number of registered Hispanics has dropped significantly.
That figure fell 5 percent across the country, to about 11 million, according to the Census Bureau. But in some politically important swing states, the decline among Hispanics, who are considered critical in the 2012 presidential contest, is much higher: just over 28 percent in New Mexico, for example, and about 10 percent in Florida.
For blacks, whose registration numbers are down 7 percent nationwide, and Hispanics, the large decrease is attributed to the ailing economy, which forced many Americans to move in search of work or because of other financial upheaval.
COMMENT: The lack of enthusiasm among elements of Obama's base is being regularly reported. The response of the Obamans is to start scare campaigns, charging, for example, that Republicans are engaged in a "war on women."
The Republican strategy here can't simply be denial of the charges. Republicans must devise strategies to appeal to the very elements on whom Obama depends. The GOP has been weak or indifferent in this regard, and that has got to change if the party is to remain competitive in coming decades.
May 5, 2012