TROUBLE IN THE COMMONWEALTH – AT 9:04 A.M. ET:  Virginia will be a critical battleground state this November.  At one time it was considered reliably Republican, but in 2008 it went for Obama.  A new poll suggests that Romney is having a tough time in the state.  Demographic factors may be largely responsible.  The state is changing, and not in ways favorable to Republicans.  From WaPo:

President Obama leads former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney in Virginia, but voters in the commonwealth are evenly divided on the White House’s major policies, a new Washington Post poll shows.

Obama is ahead of the presumed Republican presidential nominee by 51 percent to 44 percent among registered voters. And Romney does no better against Obama than he did in a Post poll a year ago, despite his emergence as the GOP standard-bearer.

The Democratic president has a key advantage in his bid for re­election: The coalition of Virginians that helped propel him to victory in 2008 — young voters, suburban Washingtonians, women and African Americans — is largely intact. Yet the survey shows that voters in the state are split on Obama’s signature health-care reform law and that they remain deeply pessimistic about the way things are going in the country, creating a potential opening for Romney.

Virginia’s changing electorate and Obama’s 2008 win suggested that the Old Dominion is becoming a reliably swing state.

COMMENT:  Romney does have a chance in Virginia and he should pursue it.  But one demographic, the growth of liberal northern Virginia, is unique to the state, as it is heavily based on federal-government workers, who will tolerate no talk of smaller government.

While Virginia is not absolutely critical to a Romney victory, it certainly would help.  Without it, almost everything else would have to fall perfectly for Romney for him to win. 

Romney might be tempted to put Virginia's popular governor, Bob McDonnell, on his ticket, but there is a danger:  McDonnell, although elected governor, is controversial because of comments he once made about women's proper role in American society.  Romney clearly doesn't need that.  He has enough of a problem with the women's vote.

May 4, 2012