BULLETIN – AT 10:08 A.M. ET:  The United States Supreme Court has ruled the individual mandate provision of the Obamacare act unconstitutional.

UPDATE TO BULLETIN – AT 10:19 A.M. ET:  The bulletin above is now being clarified and is inaccurate.  The Court said that the individual mandate cannot be sustained under the Commerce Clause of the Constitution, but can be upheld as a tax under the taxing power.  This means, essentially, that Obamacare is entirely upheld by the Court, as long as the mandate becomes a tax.  This will have to be clarified as more is learned.  It's a long decision.

SECOND UPDATE TO BULLETIN – AT 10:33 A.M. ET:  Reporters are now trying to refine their discussion of the Court's confusing decision.  Essentially, most of them are now saying that the individual mandate becomes a tax.  But the mandate requires citizens to buy insurance from private companies.  How can a tax be paid to a private company unless it is passed on to a governmental agency? 

The deciding vote upholding the individual mandate, as a tax, was cast by Chief Justice John Roberts, which will stun conservatives, who thought he was a safe vote against the mandate.

Political implications:  Unknown.  At first pundits were saying that this is a huge win for the president.  But wait.  If the mandate now becomes a tax, it is one of the largest tax increases in American history, and Romney can argue that the tax must be eliminated.  Obama is on record as saying this isn't a tax increase.   How the White House explains it away is a key political question.

Bottom line:  We haven't seen anywhere near the last of the issue.  Congress will revisit it under its own tax-writing power.  I would imagine that the individual mandate tax will be struck down by the House, but upheld by the Democratic Senate.  This is the beginning of a huge new debate.

June 28, 2012