WHERE OBAMA STANDS – AT 9:36 A.M. ET:  We are three and a half months from the election.  That election will be won in the electoral college, not in the popular vote, so it's timely to see where things stand in the states.  It takes 270 electoral votes to win.

Scott Rasmussen has a telling map, and it should not fill us with glee.  Rasmussen contents that Obama now has 247 electoral votes, collected in those states that are safe for him, likely, or leaning his way.  By contrast, Romney has 191 electoral votes, safe, likely, or leaning.  There are 100 votes in tossup states.  Obama would have to win only 23 of those, whereas Romney would have to win 79. 

Obama's strength, of course, is in the vote-rich coastal regions.  He easily takes California and New York.  Pennsylvania leans his way, as does Midwestern Michigan.  Romney's strength is in the south and the heartland.  On a map, it looks as if he owns America, but many of his states lack voting power. 

The 100 tossups will decide the election.  Can Romney pull it out?  Yes, I think so.  If he takes Ohio (18), Virginia (13), North Carolina (15), powerhouse Florida (29), and one other tossup state, like Iowa (6), he gets 81 votes and slips in.

But that is a huge task.  There are, on Rasmussen's map, only seven tossup states, and Romney would have to win five. 

Now, of course, it's possible that some Obama states could slip from "leaning Obama" to "tossup."  New Hampshire and Pennsylvania are possible, of the three "leaning" states in Rasmussen's world.  The third, Michigan, is a longer shot.

And, yes, it can go the other way, if Obama gains strength.

Obama benefits from incumbency, and the large minority vote often found in our biggest, urban states.  The minority vote will not abandon him.  Romney benefits from the fact that a small majority of Americans are making it clear that they're prepared to turn Obama out of office.  Obama can't reach 50% approval in any major poll.  But Romney must make the sale.

Dick Morris argues that the undecideds, currently pegged by Rasmussen at 4%, will go overwhelmingly for Romney, which could tip some states.  We certainly hope so.

July 21,  2012