MITCH GETS IT RIGHT – AT 10:17 A.M. ET:   In a presidential year it's sometimes easy to forget the importance of Senate and House races.  It's likely the GOP will retain control of the House, although the margin could narrow.  It's the Senate that's up for grabs.  Holding both houses would dramatically increase Republican power in Washington.  We agree with Minority Leader Mitch McConnell that guarded optimism should be the rule.  From The Politico:

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said Sunday there was a 50/50 chance of him taking over the reigns as majority leader come January.

"It's going to be a very close, competitive election," the Kentucky Republican said on CNN's "State of the Union."

"There are a number of places where we have opportunities for pickups, not many places where we have much chance of losing a seat," he told host Candy Crowley.

"At the end of the day, I think we're going to have a very narrow Senate, one way or the other," he said.

The current partisan breakdown in the Senate Democratic caucus is 53, including two independents: there are 47 Republicans. But more Democratic seats are up this cycle.

In the marquee Senate races in Massachusetts and Virginia, McConnell predicted close victories.

"We expect to win them both, but they're close races," he said.

COMMENT:  I am more optimistic about George Allen retaking his Senate seat in Virginia than I am about Scott Brown holding his in Massachusetts.  Obama is on the ticket, and that will bring out the fanatics in the Bay State, who will extend their loyalty downticket, possibly electing Elizabeth (I was the real Tonto) Warren to the Senate.  But Scott is putting up a great fight, so I have to remain hopeful.  He takes nothing for granted.

July 8,  2012