WHERE OBAMA STANDS – AT 10:31 A.M. ET: We noted yesterday that President Obama seemed to be gaining in polls that we trust. He'd just had the lead in the Rasmussen survey for two days running, the first time he'd accomplished that in more than a month.
Today's Rasmussen report gives hope that the damage may be contained. We hope.
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows President Obama attracting 45% of the vote, while Mitt Romney earns 45%. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and six percent (6%) are undecided.
Today’s results are the same as they were just before the Supreme Court ruled on the health care law.
However, intensity is up among conservatives. On Thursday morning, 43% of conservative voters were following the presidential race on a daily basis. That’s up to 51% today. It remains to be seen whether this is a lasting change, statistical noise, or a temporary response to the health care ruling.
Just 28% of moderates and 31% of liberals are following the race that closely. Those numbers are little changed since the Supreme Court ruling. Interest in a campaign is typically a good early indicator of voter turnout.
Gallup's latest tracker, reflecting polling through Friday, shows presidential approval and disapproval tied at 47%. It's interesting that Obama, a sitting president, can't get to 50%. Some vote of confidence.
Reuters is out with its first survey on the Obamacare decision:
(Reuters) - Voter support for President Barack Obama's healthcare overhaul rose after the U.S. Supreme Court upheld it but most people still oppose the law, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll on Sunday.
The online survey showed increased backing from Republicans and, crucially, the political independents whose support will be essential to winning the November 6 presidential election.
Thirty-eight percent of independents support the healthcare overhaul in the poll conducted after the court ruled Thursday the law was constitutional. That was up from 27 percent from a Reuters/Ipsos poll taken days before the justices' ruling.
That 38%, though up, is still an anemic figure for independents.
Among all registered voters, support for the law rose to 48 percent, from 43 percent before the court decision.
"This is a win for Obama. This is his bill. There's not really any doubt in people's minds, that it belongs to him," said Julia Clark, vice president a Ipsos Public Affairs. "It's his baby. It's literally been labeled Obamacare ... which maybe it works in his favor now that there's a little bit of a victory dance going on."
Republican opposition to the law stayed strong, if somewhat weaker than before the High Court ruled. Eighty-one percent of Republicans opposed it in the most recent survey, down from 86 percent in the poll conducted June 19-23.
COMMENT: There's some pro-Obama spin in the story just quoted. The bounce is a normal reaction to a "victory." Some people just go with the winner. But the bounce usually doesn't last very long.
It will be up to Romney to fashion a persuasive argument that, despite the Court's decision, which only addressed the constitutional issues of Obamacare, it's still a bad law. Romney will also have to present alternatives.
July 1, 2012