ON CONVENTION EVE – AT 10:37 A.M. ET:  As the Republican convention is about to begin, late polling confirms the race as one of the closest on record.

Rasmussen this morning has Obama up two over Romney, a bit discouraging, but well within the margin of error.  Other polls have the race dead even.

A new Pennsylvania poll shows Obama with a nine-point lead in this major state, reflecting other polls recently taken.  Pennsylvania is sometimes listed as a swing state, but seems to be reverting to form as a very blue state, one that hasn't voted GOP in a presidential election since 1988, when Bush 41 defeated Michael Dukakis.

But a new Rasmussen poll shows Virginia, a normally Republican state that Obama carried in 2008, dead even.  Virginia has changed somewhat, thanks to an influx of liberal voters to the northern part of the state, the suburbs surrounding Washington.  Virginia went for Obama 52.6% to 46.3% in 2008, a gap of 6.3%.  The problem for us in Virginia is that the Obama vote is very hard to crack, since it is heavily bolstered by African-Americans and federal employees.

Romney actually goes into the home stretch in better shape numberically than was Ronald Reagan in 1980, but Romney isn't Reagan and Obama is a far better campaigner than was Carter.  This will be a bitter fight.

August 26,  2012