TWO MORE DAYS – AT 10:24 A.M. ET:  The Republican convention starts Monday.  There may be a hurricane in the area, but current projections do not appear seriously to threaten the convention itself.  Those projections are, of course, subject to change. 

Two days before the convention, the RealClearPolitics average of polls has the presidential race essentially deadlocked, separated by a point.  Obama is at 46.6%, with Romney at 45.6.  RCP's electoral college map has Obama at 221, Romney at 181, with 136 tossups.  Today's Rasmussen tracker has Obama at 46, Romney at 45, a bit of a decline for Mitt in the last few days.

Obviously, a razor-thin race. 

The institution to watch carefully this week will be the media.  I expect a good chunk of it to go into full Obama-love, magnifying every minor error made by the Romney forces, and doing everything possible to re-elect the man in whom they've invested so much.  However, I also see some signs that some mainstream journalists are not as willing to play along as some others.  Mark Halperin, Wolf Blitzer, Jake Tapper, are not potted plants, and their comments recently indicate a streak of true independence.  Others may join in, especially if it appears Romney may win. 

Romney made a foolish comment yesterday, saying that no one ever asked for his birth certificate.  Just a joke, but jokes like that are not helpful.  Never give your opponent an opening in politics, especially when your opponent has little helpers out there who buy ink by the barrel.  Romney allowed himself, if only for a day, to be linked to the birthers.  The damage isn't permanent, but I'd rather add points, obviously.

Romney might get a slight bounce from the convention, but the Dems meet in Charlotte the week after, and the bounce might be erased.  The campaign doesn't start with heavy firepower after the Dem delegates return to their windmill-heated homes.

August 25,  2012