WHOOPS – AT 10:29 A.M. ET:  We mentioned this last night at Short Takes.  Something strange, and potentially disturbing, is happening in the Rasmussen presidential preference poll.

Mitt Romney, earlier this week, was up by four.  Now, only four or so days later, he's down by two.  That's a six-point drop, for no apparent reason.  Now, Rasmussen gives no possible explanations for this dramatic reversal in his online report today.  It could be statistical noise.  It could just be a fluke.  Or perhaps Rasmussen, who polls over a three-day period, has caught a new trend.  It's potentially worrisome, but I'd hold the heart pills until mid-week, when we'll get a clearer picture.

Gallup, which tracks over a seven-day period, has had Romney up by two through yesterday's report.  We'll see about that today.

Rasmussen has two state polls on Senate races that give us cause, on the one hand, for glee, and, on the other, for concern.  In Wisconsin, Rasmussen has Republican former Governor Tommy Thompson, just nominated for the Senate on Tuesday, up 54-43 – eleven points – over Dem challenger, Representative Tammy Baldwin of the People's Republic of Madison.  Having a senator from Madison is like having a secretary of defense from Berkeley.  A Thompson win would be a Republican pickup.

On the other hand, the result in Florida gives cause for the concern.  We'd hoped that the Republican challenger could retire Democratic Senator Bill Nelson, for another GOP pickup.  But Republican nominee, Representative Connie Mack IV, is down seven points to Nelson, 47-40.  Mack has serious image problems surrounding issues of character and personal behavior.  The Republicans might have considered that before handing him the nomination.  Nelson is very vulnerable, and a Republican loss would be a throwaway.

August 18,  2012