ENCOURAGEMENT FOR MITT – AT 10:58 A.M. ET: New polling provides some encouragement for Mitt Romney, although we always caution that polls are inherently temporary.
First, Rasmussen's daily tracker shows Romney up by four over Obama.
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 47% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 43%. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and seven percent (7%) are undecided. Romney’s lead is a bit larger when leaners are included.
A president’s job approval rating is one of the best indicators for assessing his chances of reelection. Typically, the president’s job approval rating on Election Day will be close to the share of the vote he receives. Currently, 47% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's job performance. Fifty-two percent (52%) at least somewhat disapprove of the job Obama is doing.
If accurate, that projects a close election, with Romney squeaking in. Look, if our guy wins by one vote I'd be pleased.
There's another intriguing poll, being highly publicized by Drudge. Consider:
For the first time since he began running for president, Republican Mitt Romney has the support of over 40 percent of America's youth vote, a troubling sign for President Obama who built his 2008 victory with the overwhelming support of younger, idealistic voters.
Pollster John Zogby of JZ Analytics told Secrets Tuesday that Romney received 41 percent in his weekend poll of 1,117 likely voters, for the first time crossing the 40 percent mark. What's more, he said that Romney is the only Republican of those who competed in the primaries to score so high among 18-29 year olds.
"This is the first time I am seeing Romney's numbers this high among 18-29 year olds," said Zogby. "This could be trouble for Obama who needs every young voter he can get."
Zogby helped Secrets dig deeper into his weekend poll, which we reported on earlier. The poll had Romney and Obama tied at 46 percent.
Zogby has been especially interested in the youth vote this election. In 2008, 66 percent chose Obama over Sen. John McCain,the highest percentage for a Democrat in three decades. But their desire for hope and change has turned to disillusionment and unemployment. Zogby calls them "CENGAs" for "college-educated, not going anywhere."
COMMENT: Well, I don't know. I'd want to see some confirmation of this. After all, if Obama is weakening among young people, why is the race still tied 46-46 in the Zogby survey, which echoes, more or less, the numbers we've been seeing in the Gallup tracker?
It would be great if the youth vote starts moving toward Romney. Would single women follow? I have no way of knowing. If I were Romney/Ryan, I'd make clear that single women have been among those most hurt by the Obama administration.
And yet, Obama will always have a resilience due to the fanatical support he receives from some groups, who will never abandon him.
The election is only two and a half months away.
August 15, 2012