IT'S RYAN – AT 8:27 A.M. ET:  Mitt Romney has selected Representative Paul Ryan of Wisconsin to be his running mate.  That has now been confirmed by the Romney campaign.

We are standing by, waiting for the official announcement at 9 a.m. ET  (By the way, isn't that a silly time to make this kind of announcement?  Are they trying to keep it a secret?  Why not announce the choice at 3 p.m. ET on Monday, when you get TV coverage during sane hours on both coasts and in between, and more people are paying attention to the news?  Well, they must have their reasons.)

We will make no judgments until we hear both Romney and Ryan speak this morning from Virginia.  The choice of Ryan is daring, but it's also risky.  He's a brilliant young man, filled with ideas, but in certain respects he's also an easy target.  He doesn't look ready to take over the presidency, and his very ideas can be twisted by the hopelessly dishonest Obama campaign, making Ryan into an ogre.  Remember, scare campaigns are the specialty of the liberal left.

We should emphasize that vice-presidential choices are usually most important on the day they're announced.  It's often said that no one actually votes for the vice president.  Traditionally, one of the most important measures of a VP pick is that he or she do no harm.  Some professional pols actually consider that the most important attribute.  Consider:

In 1944 it was felt that incumbent Vice President Henry Wallace was too much of a risk to put on FDR's ticket, when Roosevelt ran for a fourth term.   World War II was on, and it was clear to insiders that Roosevelt was dying.  Wallace was perceived as too far to the left to be president, so was unceremoniously dumped from the ticket in favor of Harry S. Truman.

In 1952 revelations about a political slush fund surfaced after Richard M. Nixon had been selected as Eisenhower's vice-presidential nominee.  The revelations almost forced Eisenhower to drop Nixon, who was perceived as doing harm to the ticket.  But Nixon delivered his famous "Checkers" speech, which saved him.

In 1960, Jack Kennedy's choice of Lyndon B. Johnson as vice presidential candidate badly split the Democratic Party, many of whose liberal followers feeling that Johnson was beneath them.  It turned out to be a brilliant choice, as Johnson brought in Texas, which was critical to Kennedy's election.

In 1972, George McGovern's first vice-presidential pick, Senator Thomas Eagleton of Missouri, was dumped from the ticket when it was learned he'd been treated for psychiatric problems.  He was replaced by R. Sargent Shriver. 

In 1984 Walter Mondale selected Geraldine Ferraro for vice president, the first woman to serve on the national ticket of a major party.  Mondale was swamped by Ronald Reagan, and it appeared Ferraro's selection had no great effect.

In 1988 it was widely believed that Dan Quayle, who sometimes did not appear ready for a national campaign (but was), did some harm to George H.W. Bush.  Bush won anyway.

The selection of Sarah Palin by John McCain in 2008 is still being assessed.  Some feel she helped McCain, others feel she hurt.  But she clearly made some kind of difference.

Now we wait for Ryan.  Judgment withheld.  Stand by.

August 11,  2012