FASCINATING POLLS – AT 10:25 A.M. ET:  Scott Rasmussen, who detected a slight boost for Obama after last Friday's modestly positive jobs report, says the race is back to where it was:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 47% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 43%. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided.

The president enjoyed a bounce immediately following release of last week’s job report. However, the bounce has faded, and the race is back to where it was just before Friday’s report.   Following that jobs report, consumer confidence fell to a new 2012 low yesterday and is barely above that low today. Just 24% believe the jobs market has improved over the past year, while 44% believe it has gotten worse.

In addition, Gallup now has the race as a one-pointer, with Obama leading Romney 47-46%.  We point out that Gallup polls registered voters whereas Rasmussen polls likely voters.  Polls of likely voters almost always show a small advantage for Republicans, who are more likely to vote.  In our view, they are the most accurate polls. 

Further, Karl Rove argues in The Wall Street Journal that a tie contest is really an advantage for Romney:

Mr. Romney has absorbed a punishing three-month Obama television barrage that drained the incumbent's war chest. Historically, undecided voters tend to break late for the challenger.

COMMENT:  That's true, but overconfidence is not our style.  This election will be won or lost in the Electoral College.  We don't have an election on election day.  We have 51 separate elections, the 50 states and the District of Columbia.  In the states, polling shows very tight races, with the president ahead, by narrow margins in many of the swing states.

The full campaign will not start until the conventions are over, with Romney's running mate known.  It is going to be rough and dirty.  But we must win it, for the future of the country is at risk.

August 9, 2012