JERSEY BLUES – AT 9:17 A.M. ET:  A new poll shows Obama well ahead in the population-heavy state of New Jersey.  True, the poll was taken among registered and something called unregistered voters, tilting it toward the Democrats, but that alone doesn't account for the president's huge lead.  From the New York Post:

TRENTON — President Barack Obama is maintaining a lead over Mitt Romney among New Jersey voters surveyed despite concerns about the way he's doing his job.

A Fairleigh Dickinson University PublicMind poll released Thursday shows Obama 13 percentage points ahead of the Republican. A survey in May showed Obama up by 14 points.

However, only a third of the New Jersey registered voters surveyed believe the country is moving in the right direction and 49 percent approve of the way Obama is handling his job.

The telephone survey of 945 registered and unregistered voters has a sampling error of 3.3 percentage points.

COMMENT:  Every time there's a presidential election, Republicans feel they have a shot at New Jersey.  Why shouldn't they feel that way?  Jersey elected Republican Chris Christie as governor.  But the states tilts heavily Democratic in presidential races.  There is a huge minority population, especially in Newark, and a growing Arab-American population.  New Jersey is also a union state.

But perhaps just as important, establishment Republicans like Romney have little appeal to Jerseyites.  I think Jersey is lost, unless there's a miracle.  Romney should put his resources elsewhere.

Romney has gotten some bad polling news elsewhere in the last few days.  Gallup, which had the race deadlocked a week ago, shows Obama up by two nationally.  The Obama campaign has been relentless, and Romney's trip abroad, thanks to hopelessly biased press coverage, only hurt him.

The race is winnable for Romney, considering how badly the country is doing.  Job one for him is learning to speak above the press, as Reagan did, and directly to the American people.  He has a strong case, but the media will try to destroy him, and whoever he soon picks for vice president.

August 2, 2012