William Katz:  Urgent Agenda

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ABOUT THOSE DETAILS – AT 8:22 A.M. ET:  A new poll in three key swing states gives President Obama a major boost...until you look at the details.  From the Washington Times:

President Barack Obama leads Republican Mitt Romney by a significant margin in three key battleground states, according to a new Quinnipiac University/New York Times/CBS poll.

Including voters leaning toward a candidate, Mr. Obama holds a six-point lead in both Florida and Ohio and an 11-point lead in Pennsylvania.

In Florida, 51 percent of likely voters favor Mr. Obama, compared to 45 percent who lean toward Mr. Romney. In Ohio, Mr. Obama holds a 50 percent to 44 percent advantage, and in Pennsylvania, he holds a 53 percent to 42 percent lead.

This looks pretty devastating, even fatal, for Romney.  But then we look at the poll's "internals":

While the numbers on their face appear favorable for Mr. Obama, there was also a greater sample size of Democrats in the poll. Thirty-six percent of Florida voters identified themselves generally as Democrats, compared to 27 percent Republicans and 32 percent independents. The split was nearly identical in Ohio, with 35 percent saying they were Democrats, 27 percent Republicans, and 32 percent independents. In Pennsylvania, 38 percent considered themselves Democrats, 32 percent Republicans, and 26 percent independents.

COMMENT:  There is clear oversampling of Democrats, resulting in Obama's rather hefty "support."  At the same time, we're not sure of exactly where party affiliation is right now.

I'd wait for other polls before believing this one.

However, one thing has become clear in the last two weeks, and we've been writing about it here – the overwhelming press bias that Romney will face.  We had hoped that, maybe, the press had learned its lesson from 2008, when it was widely criticized for being in the tank for Obama.  It has learned nothing...except maybe that it did a great job in 2008 upholding its own political values.  The sixties generation, and its follow-up seventies "me" generation are now in firm control of the media.  They do not buy into the notion of objectivity.  Too many reporters went into journalism, not to report the news, but to "make a difference" or to become "change agents."  That is what was pounded into their heads by the leftovers from the sixties who were and are their teachers.  It is not good news for our side.

August 1,  2012