TUMULT IN TAMPA – AT 8:18 A.M. ET:  We alerted readers last night in our "Short Takes" that there'll be a Republican debate in Tampa tonight, broadcast by CNN and hosted by CNN and the Tea Party.   This will be Rick Perry's second time at bat against the other GOP contenders. 

Perry knows he's in trouble because he called Social Security a "Ponzi scheme."  Now, it may well be a Ponzi scheme, but voters may well interpret Perry's words as an attack on Social Security itself.  It is by far the most popular government program.

Perry has now tried to preempt the attacks he'll get tonight by publishing a piece in USA Today on Social Security: 

The first step to fixing a problem is honestly admitting there is a problem. America's goal must be to fix Social Security by making it more financially sound and sustainable for the long term. But Americans deserve a frank and honest discussion of the dire financial challenges facing the nearly 80-year-old program.

As I said at the Reagan Library recently, Social Security benefits for current recipients and those nearing retirement must be protected. For younger workers, we must consider reforms to make Social Security financially viable.

It's hard to dispute those first two paragraphs.  Perry goes on to explain how Social Security is headed for red ink.  And he says we have to fix it.

And there's the problem.  He has no solution.  He doesn't propose anything other than "fixing" Social Security.  This is not only Perry's problem, it can become the GOP problem in the election – too few solutions chasing too many criticisms.  The Republican brand is not popular, as every survey shows.  It will only rise in popularity if voters believe the party has real answers, not just slings and arrows. 

Do read the Perry column.  It was obviously rushed out, and it falls short.

This must be Perry's month.  There are several more debates scheduled for September, after tonight's.  Perry is ahead in the polls, and is much loved by the base.  But he is weak among independents, and doesn't poll as well in matchups with Obama as Romney does. 

I'll be intrigued to see how Perry holds up tonight after an acceptable, but not home-run-class, debut in the debates last week.  I'll also be intrigued to see how Romney, who's slipped from frontrunner status, handles Perry, whom he must obliterate.  At least it's getting to be fun, but I'm not sold on any of the candidates yet.

There is still talk that Giuliani and/or Palin might enter the race.  It's getting awfully late, and candidates wear out their welcome by playing coy.  Both must make their decisions this month.

I would still prefer to see Marco Rubio in the race, for I believe he can defeat Obama, and possibly do it handily.  But I don't think he'll jump in.

September 12, 2011