TROUBLE IN THE BAY STATE – AT 8:45 A.M. ET:  One of the great political moments in recent times was the election of Republican Scott Brown to fill out the term of the late Senator Edward M. Kennedy of Massachusetts.  From one brief shining moment, we thought Massachusetts might be salvageable.

But a new poll brings grim news for Brown, who will be up for election to a full term next year.  From The Politico:

Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.) and challenger Elizabeth Warren are in a dead heat, according to a new poll Monday.

The poll by the University of Massachusetts-Lowell and the Boston Herald shows Brown, the Republican incumbent who scored an upset victory in a special election in January 2010, in a statistical tie with with Warren, 41 percent to 38 percent, given the survey’s 3.8 percent margin of error.

Warren, the Harvard Law School professor who headed the creation of President Barack Obama’s Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, is the clear front-runner in the six-person Democratic primary contest, getting 36 percent of the vote while none of her potential rivals got more than 5 percent.

Brown would face even stiffer competition against two Democrats who have said they had no interest in challenging the Massachusetts Republican. In the poll, Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick leads Brown by a 43 to 36 percent margin and former Rep. Joseph Kennedy II is ahead of Brown in a 45 to 37 percent advantage.

COMMENT:  Do not underestimate Elizabeth Warren.   She may be a bit of a liberal fanatic, but she has real passion, and passion counts in politics.  She also comes off as "for the people," whether that's true or not.

Recent news reports say that Wall Street is ready to gang up on Warren, who is a leading advocate of financial reform and consumer protection.  If I were Elizabeth Warren, I'd be cheering, and eagerly waiting for the Wall Street assault.  Wall Street is one of the most unpopular names in America right now, and to have Wall Street attacking you is a badge of honor in liberal Massachusetts. 

Of course, this is early polling, and it's easy to gang up on an incumbent.  Scott Brown is still an attractive candidate with great style, even though his Senate record is undistinguished.  This will be a horse race.  The Democrats are giddy over the prospect of bringing Brown down, and they have a traditionally strong Democratic state behind their effort.

October 3, 2011