IRAN WEEK – AT 10:22 A.M. ET:  We call it Iran week because Iran will be making major news this week, of a particularly grim kind.  The United Nations nuke boys will be issuing a report, unless it is suddenly suppressed, essentially accusing Iran of developing nuclear weapons, and presenting damning proof.

Already the reactions are pouring in.  Russia, as usual, is downplaying the report and warning against military action against Iran.  Although Washington doesn't want to admit it, Russia has become an ally of Iran, pretty much destroying the faculty-lounge mythology of the Obama administration that we have "reset" relations with Moscow.  They've gotten worse.

And, incredibly, there are reports in The New York Times that the Obama administration is being very "cautious" about the UN report.  (Did you ever think we'd be to the left of the UN?)  The Times story points out that the UN report is not an absolute case, and dredges up the old issues involving reports of WMD in Iraq.  I get the feeling that the Times story represents a massive attempt by parts of the intelligence establishment in Washington to justify its disgraceful, possibly dishonest 2007 National Intelligence Estimate, that claimed Iran had stopped nuclear weapons development in 2003.  I have long argued that the 2007 report should be the subject of a major Congressional investigation, with the possibility of criminal charges against those involved, if it can be shown that the report was intentionally deceptive.  There are many thoughtful, careful observers who believe that was the case, that members of the intelligence establishment were trying to shape American policy, rather than provide accurate information to policymakers, which is what their oath required.

Already, parts of the UN report are leaking out, including a devastating finding that Iran has had foreign help in building a bomb:

Intelligence provided to U.N. nuclear officials shows that Iran’s government has mastered the critical steps needed to build a nuclear weapon, receiving assistance from foreign scientists to overcome key technical hurdles, according to Western diplomats and nuclear experts briefed on the findings.

Documents and other records provide new details on the role played by a former Soviet weapons scientist who allegedly tutored Iranians over several years on building high-precision detonators of the kind used to trigger a nuclear chain reaction, the officials and experts said. Crucial technology linked to experts in Pakistan and North Korea also helped propel Iran to the threshold of nuclear capability, they added.

The officials, citing secret intelligence provided over several years to the International Atomic Energy Agency, said the records reinforce concerns that Iran continued to conduct weapons-related research after 2003 — when, U.S. intelligence agencies believe, Iranian leaders halted such experiments in response to international and domestic pressures.

The U.N. nuclear watchdog is due to release a report this week laying out its findings on Iran’s efforts to obtain sensitive nuclear technology. Fears that Iran could quickly build an atomic bomb if it chooses to has fueled anti-Iran rhetoric and new threats of military strikes. Some U.S. arms-control groups have cautioned against what they fear could be an overreaction to the report, saying there is still time to persuade Iran to change its behavior.

COMMENT:  Yes, we must guard against overreaction, just as Churchill was lectured about overreaction when he warned against Nazi Germany in the 1930s.  Later, Churchill called World War II "the unnecessary war" because, if Britain had listened to him and rearmed earlier, the war might have been prevented.

Information will come out all week.  Eyes are on the Israelis, who take this very seriously.  But watch for the usual suspects to say, possibly anonymously, that the problem isn't the Iranian bomb, but those hotheads trying to stop it.

November 7, 2011