WHERE OBAMA STANDS – AT 11:31 A.M. ET:  It is difficult to say, as some are saying, that President Obama is improving his standing with the electorate.  Polls vary from week to week.

But we can say that the president's slippage has apparently stopped, and that his numbers are firming up at about the level they were at six months ago.  For example, the latest Rasmussen daily tracker says this:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows that 21% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as president. Forty percent (40%) Strongly Disapprove, giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -19.

That's far from wonderful.  About 13% of the population is African American, so the "strongly approve" number isn't really much more than that.  The 40% "strongly disapprove" shows real passion by a large chunk of the electorate against this president.

But then there's this:

Overall, 46% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's job performance. Fifty-three percent (53%) at least somewhat disapprove.

That's a less "passionate" set of numbers, but they're really not that bad.  A president should have over 50% approval to be reelected, and Mr. Obama isn't far from that point.  Much will depend on who the Republicans choose and whether that candidate can make his case. 

The severe infighting in the Republican Party isn't helping our side.  But remember:  The infighting was worse in 1980, when Ronald Reagan was nominated, against the will of the party's lazy establishment.  The challenge to Reagan was so great, the image of him so mixed ("cowboy," "warmonger," "dumb actor hired by the rich") that party elders seriously suggested that Reagan put former President Gerald Ford on the ticket to give respectability.  The term "co-presidency" was, even discussed in sober tones. 

Fortunately, Reagan rejected the advice and went on to win impressively in November, starting a new conservative era and a remarkably successful tenure as president. 

However, Reagan was up against Jimmy Carter, a petty and often obnoxious man who really believed that, if he wanted to cross the Atlantic, he could walk it.  By contrast, Obama, while an incompetent leader, is personally popular, and knows how to work that popularity.  This will be a tough election.

November 5, 2011