THE POLITICS OF IT – AT 9:44 A.M. ET:  Already, and understandably, we are seeing some members of the punditry examine the political implications of the bin Laden action for President Obama.  The reactions range all the way from the moronic - one of the "ladies" of "The View" suggested that we just cancel the 2012 election because Obama has it – to dubious assertions that this will have no effect at all.

It will have some effect, of only the line, "He got bin Laden."  The line will have some impact in strengthening Obama's sometimes dubious national-security credentials.  Beyond that, it is difficult to know how many votes, if any, this episode will change.

Some have cited history.  It is true that George H.W. Bush had enormous approval ratings after the first Gulf War, and went on to lose the 1992 presidential election.  But Bush 41 had an anemic personality and the first Gulf War, fought to "liberate" Kuwait, didn't draw the passions that bin Laden did.

A more appropriate comparison is probably the 1942 midterm elections, occurring only 11 months after Pearl Harbor.  The country was involved in the war effort, fighting desperately both the Japanese in the Pacific and, by the time of the election, the Nazis in North Africa.  Under President Roosevelt's leadership, we had already pulled off the Doolittle raid on Tokyo and a spectacular naval victory at Midway. 

And yet, Roosevelt took a beating in the 1942 midterm elections.  The Democrats lost 45 House seats and retained only a slender majority, even losing the popular vote.  The new House, sworn in at the start of 1943, had 222 Democrats and 209 Republicans.

As usual, only a third of the Senate was up, but, there too, the president suffered losses.  The Democrats lost eight seats, but still retained a sizable advantage in the new Congress, with 58 Senate seats to the GOP's 37, with one Progressive.  (That adds up to 96.  Please note that Alaska and Hawaii had not yet become states.)

Roosevelt's majorities eroded because of grumbling over the war and loss of support in some ethnic communities.  America was never quite as united as some sugar-coated histories tell us.  It never is, any more than Britain was completely united.  Britain threw Churchill out in 1945, before the war even ended.  Roosevelt was losing popularity in part because he'd served so long.  He did get reelected in 1944, but not by an overwhelming margin, considering America's dramatic path to wartime victory.

No way to predict, then, how Obama will do next year.  We do know that military success doesn't always translate into political victory, especially if that success occurs long before the election.

May 3, 2011