STANDOFF IN LIBYA – AT 8:25 A.M. ET:  There are no signs of regime change in Libya.  Rebels fighting Qaddafi's forces have been pushed back despite NATO air strikes.  From Fox:

BREGA, Libya -- Rebels retreated Wednesday from the key Libyan oil port of Ras Lanouf along the coastal road leading to the capital Tripoli after they came under heavy shelling from ground forces loyal to leader Muammar Qaddafi.

NATO planes flew over the zone where the heaviest fighting was under way and an Associated Press reporter at the scene heard explosions, indicating a new wave of airstrikes against Qaddafi's forces.

And...

With the help of NATO airstrikes earlier in the week, rebel who control the eastern half of Libya rapidly advanced westward on the main coastal highway that leads to Qaddafi's stronghold in the capital. The got within 60 miles of the city of Sirte, Qaddafi's hometown and a bastion of support for the longtime leader with a major military base.

At that point, they came under heavy bombardments by Qaddafi's ground forces, who outgun the rebels in every way -- in numbers, equipment and training.

COMMENT:  One of my fears here is that Obama, an amateur in military and foreign policy, may have been sold what other leaders have been sold – an air campaign.  But air campaigns alone very rarely are decisive, although they can certainly play a large role in the outcome of a conflict.  It is troops on the ground who make the ultimate difference.

Obama has pledged that no American ground troops will be involved in Libya.  It is hard to see Europeans placing their soldiers on the ground.  And the Arab states...forget it.

So what happens if the Libyan leader doesn't budge, and his troops hold off the rebels?  We may be facing that situation fairly soon.  This is a day-by-day struggle against a man who has been in power more than four decades, and clearly has a knack for clinging to his office.

March 30, 2011