BIG SPEECH TONIGHT – AT 8:07 P.M. ET:  The State of the Union speech is tonight.  Now, please note the time on your clocks...right now.  Do you realize that, at this same time tomorrow morning, you will have forgotten everything that's going to be said tonight?  Check me on that.

Pundits yesterday were predicting a largely ceremonial and patriotic speech.  That seems to be the main intent.  Indeed, the recent shootings in Arizona will be front and center, with the president introducing some of those affected.  This, apparently, will include the family of the nine-year-old girl who was slain, which, in my personal view, raises serious questions of taste.  How about leaving some of these people alone?

The State of the Union is starting to look like editions of the old Ed Sullivan shows of many a Sunday night – when Sullivan would introduce members of the audience.  "Sitting out in the audience tonight, the winner of the gin game at Tony's Bar and Grill..."

As to the substance of the speech, there are some conflicting predictions.  Some say the president will turn himself into a deficit hawk, rushing to the right of the Republican establishment.  Others say he will actually call for more spending, more "investment" in the future.  Well, we don't have to wait too many hours to find out.

The president has been rising in the polls.  He wants to keep it that way, and attract independents to his column in 2012.  And yet, he must also energize the increasingly left-wing base of the Democratic Party, now largely stripped of its moderate wing in the House by the results of the November election. 

The president may well get another poll boost tonight, especially if he lays on the emotion and patriotism with appropriate (and probably false) thickness.  In the days that follow, though, he's got to present the federal budget for the coming year, and that's when the fireworks truly begin.

America will get a good look tonight at Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, who will deliver the Republican response.  Ryan is already being seriously mentioned for higher office.  The response to the State of the Union gives him a platform he's never had before.  He gets this one shot, and must do well.  Recall the catastrophic performance of Governor Bobby Jindal of Louisiana, whose strikeout in giving a State of the Union response to Obama dulled his previously shining star. 

January 25, 2011