EGYPT UPDATE – AT 10:09 A.M. ET:  Violence is escalating in Cairo.  The situation looks very different from what it has looked like in recent days.  Pro-Mubarak forces, some possibly government or police employees in civilian clothes, are coming out in increasing numbers.

One group of pro-Mubarak demonstrators roared in on camelback.

Former ambassador to the UN John Bolton just said on Fox that he believes the military will soon intervene.  Bolton also expressed dismay that the anti-government demonstrators in the streets didn't take "yes" for an answer, didn't agree to Mubarak's plan to decline to run in the September election, allowing a peaceful and organized transition. 

Conditions are changing by the hour.   One key factor, not reported in much detail by the press, is how much residual support Mubarak has.  There are many Egyptians, especially in the lower classes, who respect Mubarak for the stability he's brought to the country.  They may well resent anti-government demonstrators from the middle classes.

The Egyptian foreign ministry has just sternly rejected American and European demands that Mubarak start the transition immediately.  The firmness of the statement indicates that the Mubarak regime feels it has the power to keep itself in power through September.  And that may indicate a belief that the army is not going to let the country descend into chaos.

Watch what the army does.

February 2, 2011