RUMBLE IN IOWA TONIGHT – AT 9:07 A.M. ET:  There will be a major televised debate among GOP presidential contenders tonight in Iowa, sponsored by Fox News and the Washington Examiner.  Check your local Fox News listing.

Neither Rick Perry nor Sarah Palin will be in the debate, but all the other majors will be.  Watch to see if Tim Pawlenty, who has shown some traction in Iowa in recent days, can improve his standing.  Watch to see if Michele Bachmann can repeat her stellar performance at the first debate, many weeks ago, in New Hampshire.

After the debate, the real Iowa fun begins.  Sarah Palin rolls into the state, and Rick Perry arrives over the weekend.  The Ames straw poll is Saturday. 

Iowa won't determine the nominee, and the Iowa caucuses, which actually decide convention delegate strength, won't be held until winter, but Iowa can send some weak contenders packing, and identify who is coming to the head of the pack.  I recommend you watch tonight.

In related political news, a new Fox poll has bad news for Barack Obama, and some tentative good news for Mitt Romney:

More American voters disapprove than approve of the job President Obama is doing. Likewise, if making a choice today, more voters say they would back someone else for president in 2012 than say they would give Obama a second term. Who would that someone else be?

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney remains Republican primary voters’ preferred candidate. He’s also the GOP contender more voters see as likely to do a good job in the White House.

Currently 42 percent of voters approve of Obama’s job performance and 48 percent disapprove. Last month, before the agreement on the nation’s debt limit was finalized, 45 percent approved and 46 percent disapproved (July 17-19, 2011).

The drag on the president’s rating these days is not only lower approval among Democrats, which currently stands at 77 percent, but also a record-low 31 percent approval among independents. Approval among Republicans is 6 percent -- matching a previous record-low in October 2010.

Meanwhile, for the first time, the poll shows a 51-percent majority of voters think Obama is not a strong and decisive leader.

COMMENT:  Meanwhile, the president is scheduled to go on another vacation.  If I had numbers like that, I'd get out of town, too.

August 11, 2011