THE BIG DEAL – AT 8:14 A.M. ET:  Is it a good deal?  Is it a fair deal?  I've looked at the agreement that will presumably avoid a default and find it a mediocre deal, with dangerous implications. 

It does potentially cut more spending than the increase in the debt that it allows, but it emphatically does not protect national defense from catastrophic cuts that could severely compromise our military effectiveness and thus our foreign policy.  We hope those cuts don't occur.  If they do, you can kiss America's superpower status goodbye, as China builds its military power.

The Democrats won't care.  Their party is controlled by a crowd nostalgic for the 1960s.  And, sadly, some of the Tea Party contingent also doesn't seem to care.  While military pay appears to be protected, military strength is not.  Indeed, if panels set up by the agreement cannot agree on where to cut to fulfil the requirements of the agreement, then certain cuts become automatic, and half will come from national security.

Now, it is true that all agreements like this tend to float into space after time, as Congress makes modifications and money gets shifted around by the federal government.  But I am uneasy with the lack of national defense guarantees. 

The agreement calls for no new taxes.  That is the new Republican religion.  It is also wholly unrealistic, unless the economy begins to boom and takes care of a lot of our problems.  Even conservative writers and economists like Ben Stein have been saying that som tax enhancements are inevitable if the American people demand certain services. 

Michelle Bachmann has announced that she will vote against the plan.  Not enough spending cuts.

It is impressive only that the leaders got a deal, apparently without much constructive help from our campaigner in chief.  The deal itself does not thrill.  We will be learning more details as the day progresses.  I will be looking for the reaction, which will probably involve a number of leaks, from military people.

For a reasonable presentation of what the agreement includes, go to the AP piece here, and Speaker Boehner's "slide show" on the agreement here.

August 1, 2011