THE NIGHTMARE SCENARIO  – AT 10:49 A.M. ET:  It's pretty clear that Donald Trump will run for the Republican nomination for president.  But it's unlikely he'll get it.  What happens then?  Well, here in New York The Donald is known for his sizable ego, and his deep pockets.  Do you think a little nomination thing will stand in his way?  Thus, the nightmare scenario.  From The Wall Street Journal:

Donald Trump has waffled on whether he’d run as an independent should he fall flat chasing the Republican 2012 nomination. But one thing is certain: a Trump solo run could be very bad news for the Republican Party.

In Iowa, GOP operatives and activists are almost universally pumped about Mr. Trump jumping into the first-in-the-nation caucuses. The real-estate magnate and reality TV star says he will decide by June. But the same Republicans are mortified at the thought of him making an independent bid.

A Public Policy Poll released Thursday gives a good glimpse why. Were Mr. Trump to launch an independent run, 21% of those polled in Iowa said they would back him in the general election. In turn, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney got 27% support, while President Barack Obama pulled in 43%, easily enough to win the state.

The PPP poll of 1,109 Iowans has a margin of error of 2.9%.

Considering that Ross Perot garnered 18% nationally in 1992, helping tilt the election to Bill Clinton, it’s hardly outlandish to say that Mr. Trump could pull in a similar swath of voters in 2012—almost certainly guaranteeing a Obama victory.

COMMENT:  Exactly right, and I fear that may just happen.  Trump believes his own press clippings, as did Ross Perot, who did cost Bush 41 the 1992 election.  Trump may well convince himself that he could be elected as an independent.

Donald, go build an apartment house.

April 22, 2011