GOP BLOWOUT PREDICTED BY "THE HILL" - AT 5:41 A.M. ET: "The Hill" newspaper, an authoritative inside-the-Beltway sheet read by political pros, isn't holding back on its predictions for next week:
Republicans are headed for a blowout election win that seems certain to seize more than enough seats to knock out the Democrats and take control of the House.
The Hill 2010 Midterm Election poll, surveying nearly 17,000 likely voters in 42 toss-up districts over four weeks, points to a massive Republican wave that, barring an extraordinary turnaround, will deliver crushing nationwide defeats for President Obama’s party.
The data suggest a GOP pickup that could easily top 50 seats (the party needs 39 for control of the House).
Of the 42 districts polled for The Hill, all but two of which are currently Democratic, 31 had Republicans in the lead. Democrats were up in just seven, and four were tied. In addition, there are some 15 Democratic districts that are so far into the GOP win column that they weren’t polled. That would suggest at least 46 GOP pickups, plus whatever the party gets out of another 40 or 50 seats that some experts believe are in play.
One of the most striking findings from The Hill’s polling is that voter opinions have remained rock-solid over four weeks, particularly among independents.
In the overwhelming majority of districts, independent voters are breaking for Republican challengers while expressing widespread disapproval of Obama and the Democratic leadership in Congress.
COMMENT: This is pretty much in line with what we're reading, although some political observers are urging caution. Remember, no votes have actually been counted yet.
It is in the Senate where GOP dreams may be snipped a bit. A combination of weak candidates and a sometimes incoherent message will make it hard for the Republicans to run the table and take control of the upper house. Most estimates, as of right now, have the new Senate dividing about 52-48 in favor of the Dems. That would still mean a gain of seven for the GOP and would make it virtually impossible for the Democrats to get anything crazy through the Senate, since the more moderate Dems owe nothing to the current Democratic leadership and could defect on measures that are unpopular back home.
October 27, 2010