WILL OBAMA FACE A 2012 PRIMARY CHALLENGE? – AT 8:54 A.M. ET:  That is the most intriguing political question circulating inside the Beltway.  Well, that and the question that asks whether Obama will actually run again.

Most political theoreticians say that a primary challenge is most likely from Obama's left...if there's anbody on Obama's left.  Only a true, credentialed leftist, could run against him without being called "racist," although that will probably happen anyway.  Moderate Obama critics like outgoing Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana, have no standing with the party's flake-encrusted base. 

Any challenge would likely fail, in part because African-Americans would make it clear that, if their man isn't heading the ticket, they would stay home on election day.

But a challenge can be highly damaging to Obama in the general election.  Both recent presidents defeated for reelection, Jimmah Carter and George H.W. Bush, had faced primary challenges before losing the general.  A primary challenge lowers the stature of the incumbent and renders him vulnerable.

So who would challenge Obama?  Two names that come up are Russ Feingold, recently defeated senator from Wisconsin, and the most liberal man in the current Senate, and incoming Governor Jerry Brown of California, who has nothing to lose.  Neither would get very far, in my view.

The 2012 campaign has already begun.  "Fasten your seat belts," as Ms. Davis said in 'All About Eve,' "this is going to be a bumpy night."

November 24, 2010