INDY SUPPORT FOR OBAMA AT LOWEST EBB – AT 8:05 A.M. ET: Only a day after Scott Rasmussen reported that Mr. Obama's approval is holding steady, in the mid-40s, another survey tells us that the president's support among independents is sinking. Go figure. From Andrew Malcolm's Top of the Ticket blog at the Los Angeles Times:
Two new polls this morning augur ill for President Barack Obama and his fellow Democrats who control Congress.
The worst -- from Gallup -- finds that for the first time since Obama took the oath, his support among independents, a key voter segment in his decisive 2008 coalition election win, has fallen below 40%. The new tracking finds that Obama's support among all voter segments has declined in the past year, but nowhere more than among independents.
Only 38% now support him, an 18-point drop from 52 weeks ago, when polls first began showing the nation's rapidly-growing population of independent voters peeling off, as Obama relentlessly pushed his healthcare plan and ignored polls saying jobs and the economy were uppermost on voters' minds.
In that same time span, support for the Democrat has fallen 9 points among Democrats (from 90% to 81%) and 8 points among Republicans (from 20% to 12%).
Collectively, only 46% of Americans approve of the president's job performance, just 1 point above his worst approval of 45%. Obama's approval has not been above 50% since February.
Other recent presidents suffered similar low ratings in their second year -- Jimmy Carter (40%), Ronald Reagan (42%) and Bill Clinton (43%).
And each of those presidents' parties lost substantial numbers of congressional seats in the ensuing midterm elections...
...Reagan and Clinton recovered in the second half of their first terms to easily win reelection; Carter did not.
That's because Carter was running against Reagan, a superb candidate. Clinton ran against Bob Dole and Reagan against Walter Mondale, two dull chaps. Who the opposition puts up is the key issue.
Also out this morning, a new Harris Poll of 2,227 adults finds widespread dissatisfaction and disenchantment with leading Democrats in Washington.
Republicans should gain in November, but the goal is taking control of both houses of Congress. Close is not good enough. Think next Supreme Court appointment, and what will happen if the Dems still control the Senate, which must confirm that appointment.
July 7, 2010