OBAMA STEADY IN POLL – AT 8:13 P.M. ET:  One thing Republicans must face is the fact that President Obama's approval ratings tend to be remarkably steady.  That doesn't mean they won't erode further.  It does mean that he still retains a solid base of at least reasonable support. 

The Democratic Party is a coalition, and some of the blocs making up that coalition simply will not vote against Obama.  Scott Rasmussen reports:

Overall, 45% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's performance. Fifty-four percent (54%) disapprove. A review of the month-by-month polling numbers shows that the president’s ratings have been remarkably stable. Despite the passage of health care, the Gulf Oil spill, economic concerns, and more, his full-month approval ratings have remained at 46% or 47% for seven straight months.

COMMENT:  And that's not bad.  True, it's not a majority, and, true, those who dislike Obama dislike him strongly, but he's not in catastrophic shape.  Republicans are perpetually overconfident, and that overconfidence can easily drip over to 2012.  So far, I have not seen a GOP candidate for president who is a truly strong campaigner, someone who excites, and that's what we'll need to defeat Obama.  The man can't govern, but he can campaign.  In an age of short attention spans and a show-business approach to almost everything, that counts...big time.

July 6, 2010