FROM THE WONDERFUL FOLKS WHO BROUGHT YOU LAST SEASON'S FLOPS – AT 7:14 P.M. ET:  The Tonight Show is an important political institution, so what happens to it is of political interest.

The latest from the world of high-stakes programming is that Conan will soon be gone and Jay will soon be back:

Welcome back, Jay - and goodbye, Conan?

Conan O'Brien's last show could come as soon as next week - and Jay Leno may be retaking the helm of the "Tonight Show," two new reports say.

NBC's late-night woes may have been solved Thursday with a deal to restore Jay Leno to his old 11:35 p.m. slot host.

And with Leno's less-than-triumphant return, current "Tonight" host Conan O'Brien is wrapping up his seven-month stint behind the desk of the venerable talk show.

The Leno deal was reported by TMZ.com, while People reported O'Brien's last show was set for next Friday. Neither report could be immediately confirmed.

An NBC spokesman told TVGuide.com that there was no Leno deal - but did not address People's reporting on Conan.

"Conan does not currently plan on doing any more new shows after next week," a source told People.

COMMENT:  Well, anything could theoretically work, but I have real doubts about this.  First, Americans root for the underdog, and Conan is the underdog.  Second, Jay – who nurtured an image as a nice guy – comes off as the heavy, the already successful guy who's had his turn at "Tonight," cutting off the young kid.  Early in his tenure at The Tonight Show, Jay had an agent/manger from hell who was abusive to any and all.  Although she had been instrumental in his career, he had to fire her to preserve his image.  Now he risks real damage. 

Third, it may fail.  Comebacks are very, very difficult.  Jack Paar, who was the king of late night before Johnny, tried to come back with his own late-night show on ABC in the early 70s, and flopped badly.  Jay recently flopped at 10 p.m. on NBC, and the thinkers of Hollywood – that's a joke – calculate that he'll do just fine back in his old time slot.  Maybe yes, maybe no.  People tire of a personality, and the circumstances here are sour.  Where, after all, is the wanting of Leno?  Is there a popular uprising?

This is the time when programming executives bet everything.  Don't worry for them financially.  But their ability to get the best table at a Hollywood restaurant, and to have their names painted on their parking spaces – these priceless things (Hollywood priceless) are on the line.

January 14, 2010