THERE IS FEVER, THERE IS PAIN – AT 10:27 A.M. ET:  No, no, this can't be right.  Will the Kennedy family allow this?

But...it has been written.  Holy holy holy:

Don't look now, but Republican Scott Brown leads Democrat Martha Coakley by one point, 48 to 47 percent, in Public Policy Polling's new poll of the January 19 special Senate election in Massachusetts.

Brown is benefiting from depressed Democratic interest in the election and a huge lead among independents for his surprisingly strong standing. Those planning to vote in the special election only report having voted for Barack Obama in 2008 by a 16 point margin, in contrast to his actual 26 point victory in the state.

And those poll results are being reported elsewhere as well.  It is not a misprint.

The sound you hear is Massachusetts liberals quickly packing and rushing to ask for political asylum in Vermont. 

About a week ago the Rasmussen poll had Brown only nine behind.  He'd been 30 behind not long before that.

Is it possible?  Can a miracle occur a week from Tuesday?

Who knows?  There hasn't been a Republican elected to the Senate from Massachusetts in decades.  And this is the seat vacated by the death of Edward M. Kennedy.  It is the Ted Kennedy seat.

Massachusetts is a college state, and the academic "community" provides major voting support to the Democratic Party.  But, as reader Sam Indorante writes, the academic calendar may be working against the Dems this time:

Many of the traditional Dem lever pullers (academic elites and academic-elite wannabees, aka students) may be out of town for this election.

Colleges are on winter break.  Harvard doesn't return, as Sam points out, until January 25th.  Others probably return too late for the vote. 

The Dems are now alerted that Coakley is in trouble.  They'll turn on the heat.  Brown's election is still statistically unlikely, but he is surging.  Hope for the impossible.

January 10,  2010