I GUESS HE COULD GO LIVE IN ENGLAND – AT 9:20 A.M. ET:  With Patrick Kennedy leaving Washington, our thoughts turn to others who might soon need the services of the van lines.  A new poll guides our thinking:

Most voters don’t believe President Barack Obama will win reelection, or that he deserves to, according to a new poll released Thursday.

Just 29 percent of the registered voters surveyed by Fox News and Opinion Dynamics said they believed Obama would win in 2012; 64 percent said they expected him to lose.

Views of Obama’s ability to get reelected broke down along party lines, with 49 percent of Democrats and 10 percent of Republicans saying Obama would win.

Only 49% of Dems think Obama will be reelected?  That's not a vote of confidence from the home team.

In a similar poll a year ago, 44 percent of the voters said Obama would win.

In a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll released earlier this week, Obama led a generic Republican presidential candidate, 43 to 39 percent, and specific candidates by even larger margins.

Views of whether Obama deserves a second term also broke down along partisan lines.

Overall, 35 percent of those surveyed said he deserves reelection. Among Democrats, it was 67 percent and among Republicans just 7 percent.

Among independents, 32 percent said Obama deserves reelection.

COMMENT:  The president's loss of the indies must be particularly upsetting to the White House, for elections are won in the great middle. 

And yet, look at the results of the WSJ/NBC poll:  Obama would still win against any listed Republican candidate.  He may be unpopular, but the GOP is less than loved.  Republicans must realize what the polls are telling them:  They need a first-class candidate in 2012, not simply the anti-Obama. 

Will the GOP listen?  In 1994, two years after a stunning GOP victory in the midterms, the party had a golden chance to defeat incumbent President Bill Clinton.  But Republicans put up the hapless Bob Dole, a man with a personality even a mother might reject.  It has been the Republican tradition to nominate the next in line.  That won't do in 2012.  Get it, guys?

December 17, 2010