IRAN ON THE MOVE – AT 8:53 A.M. ET:  There is much talk about the administration's next step on Iran.  With all the sanctions business and the tough rhetoric, little if anything has been achieved in stopping, or even slowing, the Iranian nuclear program.  And now comes this:

VIENNA — Iran has activated equipment to enrich uranium more efficiently in a move that defies the U.N. Security Council, the International Atomic Energy Agency said Monday.

The Vienna-based nuclear watchdog said Iran has started using a second set of 164 centrifuges linked in a cascade, or string of machines, to enrich uranium to up to 20 percent at its Natanz pilot fuel enrichment plant. Another cascade there has been producing uranium enriched to near 20 percent since February.

If enriched to around 95 percent, uranium can be used in building a nuclear bomb. At 20 percent, it can be turned into weapons-grade material much more quickly than less-enriched uranium.

Tehran denies it has such aims and says its nuclear activities are for peaceful purposes only. But some in the international community — the United States and its allies — aren't convinced.

COMMENT:  No, and Iran hasn't been very convincing. 

The question is, after the recent imposition of new sanctions, whether we have a Plan B.  If sanctions fail once more, what are we prepared to do?  Much of Europe would shudder to think of anything more drastic than sanctions, especially now that polls show Angela Merkel's center-right German government to be increasingly unpopular.  If it is replaced by the left, you can kiss strong action against Iran goodbye, at least action from Europe.

With American elections coming up, Obama would actually benefit from a harder line, even if his party won't go along with it.  But it appears certain that 2011 will be an utterly crucial year for Iran policy.  Either sanctions will work, or will fall apart.  If they fall apart, the next move may well be up to the U.S., perhaps acting alone.  Britain?  We'll wait and see.  The new government of alleged conservative David Cameron is strange indeed.  A new, high-level executive appointed to the Foreign Office had to resign a Foreign Office post earlier after having an affair with a member of the PLO.  That inspires confidence, doesn't it?

One thing Obama will probably have going for him in 2011 is a more supportive Congress.  Whether he'll know how to work with it is another story.

August 10, 2010