THE NEW DAY COMING - AT 7:59 A.M. ET:  We are about two weeks away from the start of 2010, which is shaping up, politically, as the most momentous non-presidential-election year in memory.  Never have the stakes been so high.  Americans will have a clear choice between a runaway Democratic Party, increasingly contemptuous of public opinion, and a resurgent Republican Party, hardly imaginative in its prescriptions, but responsible enough to try to halt a ten-wheeler that is driving off a cliff.

And yet, the political landscape ahead raises an intriguing question:  Will 2010 be the year in which the Democrats lose, and Barack Obama wins? 

I know, I know, it sounds like a nutty question, so let me explain.  We wrote last week that there has been, in recent decades, a major role reversal in American politics.  Republicans, once the party of isolation, have become the party of national defense.  Democrats, once the party of NATO, of Roosevelt, Truman, and Kennedy, have become the party of neo-isolationism.  Republicans, once the snooty, often sleepy party of "business," have increasingly embraced the values of the common American.  Democrats, once the party of those common Americans, increasingly find their inspiration in the trendy salons of Manhattan, Beverly Hills, and Aspen. 

And so on, and so on. 

But if Barack Obama knows how to do one thing, it's survive, and win.  We know that, every Wednesday, at the White House, his political team goes over polls.  The news for them recently has been nothing short of devastating.  The honeymoon is over, the marriage is weakening, a 2012 divorce may be in prospect.

And why?  These White House political guys know why - because Mr. Obama has 1) allowed himself to be dragged down by the breathtakingly unpopular Democratic leadership in Congress; 2) has, after trying to portray himself as a moderate in 2008, governed from the solid left; 3) projected an image of indecisiveness and weakness in foreign affairs; and 4) given the impression that he doesn't much like his own country.

They know that must change.  So does their boss, who enjoys the house and the perks.  In recent days we may have seen the start of that change.  (I stress may.)  As Bill Kristol asks in The Weekly Standard, was Obama's speech in Oslo last week a Nobel War Speech?  Was the president laying the groundwork for a revised, more muscular, more American foreign policy?  Was, Kristol asks, Obama preparing the world for a possible American strike on Iran?

These things are all questions, but the Barack Obama of Oslo was not the Barack Obama we came to know and dislike, which is why his speech drew so much conservative praise, if restrained praise. 

Further, the president's stiff-arming of pleas for action on behalf of African Americans by the Congressional Black Caucus may (again may) have been a kind of declaration of independence for this nation's first African-American president.

Questions:  Has the decision been made by the White House to distance itself from the left wing of the Democratic Party?  Is Obama pulling a Harry? 

In 1948, Harry S. Truman not only distanced himself from Southern segregationists, moving the Democratic Party into the age of civil rights, he also slammed the door on the party's left, sending poor Henry A. Wallace, a former vice president, to run for president on the Progressive ticket. 

Some of Obama's recent moves suggest that he may be trying to win next year's coveted Harry from the Academy of Practical Politics and Survival.

He may also be trying for the Ronnie.  Conservatives idolize Ronald Reagan, conveniently forgetting that Reagan never once addressed a pro-life rally in person, but only by telephone.  Reagan knew that, to survive and to govern effectively, he had to have the broad American middle, and he never got all that cozy with his party's hard right or social conservatives.

So we may have another role reversal coming.  It's too early to tell.  Obama must back his recent symbolism with action, and Iran may be his first test.  He is, instinctively, on the left, whereas Harry Truman came from a far less ideological base.  But if Obama cuts loose from his party's left, he may well prosper politically while his party sinks.  And he might squeeze by in 2012, as Harry did in 1948, even though his party becomes splintered and directionless.

Interesting times ahead.

December 14,  2009