GRIM PROSPECTS FOR DEMOCRATS - AT 4:56 P.M. ET:  The midterm elections are still 14 months away, but the handicapping has already begun.  Given the date, this can best be described as gaming, but it's fun, and illuminates where we are politically.  From The Politico:

After an August recess marked by raucous town halls, troubling polling data and widespread anecdotal evidence of a volatile electorate, the small universe of political analysts who closely follow House races is predicting moderate to heavy Democratic losses in 2010.

Some of the most prominent and respected handicappers can now envision an election in which Democrats suffer double-digit losses in the House — not enough to provide the 40 seats necessary to return the GOP to power but enough to put them within striking distance.

Top political analyst Charlie Cook, in a special August 20 update to subscribers, wrote that “the situation this summer has slipped completely out of control for President Obama and congressional Democrats.”

The sad fact, though, is that the Democratic losses will probably be among moderate Dems, the thoughtful Democrats the country needs to balance the fringe crowd.  They will be running in swing districts that could easily go Republican.

Look, a great deal can happen between now and the 2010 election day.  We haven't even had the 2009 election, where the governorships of New Jersey and Virginia are up for grabs.  And Republicans cannot just sit around and wait to be elected.  They have a history of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, and they've usually deserved it.  They must have an affirmative program that outlines how they will solve the real problems the nation faces.  And it wouldn't be a bad idea to have some attractive candidates whose closets are free of skeletons.

August 31, 2009