William Katz: Urgent Agenda
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Today's edition of SNIPPETS is here. ---------------------------------------------- Note to readers: Evening Update will be posted later than usual tonight as I'll be in a place with no signal. I regret the inconvenience.
Posted at 4:08 p.m. ET
New tracking polls fail to show any new boom for Obama. For the Democratic nomination: Rasmussen has Obama up eight over Clinton, but Gallup has him up only two. Two thirds of those in Gallup's survey were polled after this week's primaries in North Carolina and Indiana. The Clinton camp seems to be holding. In the general: Rasmussen has Obama up three over McCain, but Gallup has him up only one. Rasmussen has Clinton up five over McCain, whereas Gallup has her up four. Clinton does better in the general than Obama, despite the fact that Clinton has been widely declared out of the race. It's too early to make definitive statements about these results. But if they continue, the Democratic Party may have a serious problem with its Clinton contingent. They ain't gonna be pushed around that easily. May 9, 2008. Permalink
Posted at 4:47 a.m.
The obituaries for Hillary Clinton are already being written. Charles Krauthammer has one that's particularly perceptive:
And...
Yeah, he's probably got it right. We should always caution, though, that there's another major player in this race who gets very little mention - the president of the United States. We don't know what George W. Bush has in store for us these next eight months. Eight months are 100 lifetimes in politics. Bush does not strike me as the kind who will go gently or quietly, unless his father's crowd clamps down on him. I'd watch the Middle East or the Persian Gulf for moves that could have far greater impact on the presidential race than anything Obama or McCain could do. May 9, 2008. Permalink
Another grim remembrance. The Wall Street Journal writes of the divorce, without lawyers apparently, of the Clintons from the Democratic Party. It is painful, it is poignant. It is a paperback series:
But...
Ouch. Finally...
Ouch plus. But I'm not so sure the Dems will slam the door completely on their 1990s couple-of-the decade. Jack Warner, the movie mogul, used to have a saying: "I don't want to see that SOB in my office again...unless I need him." You never know when the Democrats will think they'll need the Clintons again. And if they don't, someone else might. If Obama loses, the Democratic Party could split. I can easily see Clinton, and Joe Lieberman, and Ed Rendell riding off in one direction, with Obama and Kerry and Howard Dean driving their Prius in the other. That could be such fun. Only political death, not the real kind. May 9, 2008. Permalink
Michael Gerson, the president's former speech writer, has emerged as an astute political columnist. Here he cautions that Barack Obama has two serious problems heading into the fall campaign.
And Obama's second problem?
This is an excellent piece, and I urge you to read the whole thing. Gerson makes one particularly apt observation, in discussing the wearing of the American-flag lapel pin: "A president," he says, "is expected to be a patriotic symbol himself, not the arbiter of patriotic symbols." That is something many self-proclaimed "intellectuals" never understand, that the president is the servant of the culture, not its master. If the people want the president to wear a flag pin, he wears it. Period. It reflects not his political opinion, or even his patriotism, but his service. Do you think the editorialists at The New York Times understand that? May 9, 2008. Permalink
Finally, a new symbol of greatness emerges. Prepare to be excited. Alec Baldwin may run for public office. Move over, Abe Lincoln:
The eloquence, the clarity of thought, the Jeffersonian intellect. And he's really, really thought it over:
Look, that quote doesn't have to be on his monument in Washington. There are other things he's said. He can run for president on the same ticket with Rosie O'Donnell. What an inauguration. Be back later. May 9, 2008. Permalink
EVENING UPDATE: MAY 8, 2008 Posted at 7:36 p.m. ET
Barack Obama has refused to rule out Hillary Clinton as his vice presidential choice:
And of course it would be a "unity" ticket. It could also be hell. First of all, for a man committed to changing Washington politics to pick someone who is a symbol of everything he claims to oppose would be the height of cynicism. True, Kennedy picked Lyndon Johnson in 1960, and that was cynical to the max. I recall a number of Democrats choking on the choice and requiring immediate help from the local kid who took the Red Cross course. Also, Clinton may not be such an asset. Most vice presidential choices make no great difference in the outcome of the presidential election. She might. A lot of people could come out just to vote against her. And I'm not at all sure that she can keep the potential McCain Democrats from defecting. They're interested in the top of the ticket, not the co-pilot's seat. Finally, the ultimate nightmare: What if Obama wins? He'd have, down the hall in the White House, someone plotting to take his place. And he'd have her husband, who'd stroll in just to be sure the old rugs were being maintained. If I were Barack Obama, I'd look elsewhere. May 8, 2008. Permalink
Just as Israel is celebrating its 60th birthday, it's been enveloped in a political crisis. One thing about Israel - when the authorities there investigate the country's leaders, nothing gets in the way of the investigators. The prime minister, Ehud Olmert, is under investigation for bribery:
This could impact our election campaign by its effect on the so-called "peace process." Obviously, a prime minister under a cloud is in no position to negotiate a major agreement. However, if Olmert is forced out, a new prime minister, clear of any suspicions, would be under great international pressure to negotiate a peace deal with the Palestinians. Part of that pressure would come from our own State Department. Cautionary note: There have been many official investigations of high officials in Israel. They often open with a bang and end with a whimper. So we must wait. May 8, 2008. Permalink
This morning we examined the idea that action against Iran could occur in the near future, and affect our political campaign. (See "A Changer?") Real Iran experts - the kind who've been right all along - are arguing that something serious must be done. The excellent Michael Ledeen says this:
That's the point. This war "has been running for nearly thirty years" without our political class acknowledging it. Now the war is hot, and if the Iranian nuclear program speeds long to success, will get much hotter. During the Cuban Missile Crisis of October, 1962, the Joint Chiefs of Staff gave President Kennedy some very sound advice: Whatever you do, don't do it piecemeal. For thirty years we've been handling Iran piecemeal. President Bush, in his last months in office, has an opportunity to change that. Whether he does may have a substantial impact on his place in history. May 8, 2008. Permalink
EARLY AFTERNOON POST: MAY 8, 2008 Posted at 2:18 p.m. ET
Yesterday was the first full day of polling following the announcement of Tuesday's primary result. It won't be until Sunday or Monday that we have the result of tracking polls taken entirely after Tuesday. (They are taken over a period of three or four days.) Thus far there doesn't seem to be any hint of change. For the Democratic nomination, Gallup has Obama up one over Clinton and Rasmussen has him up four. In the general, Gallup has Obama up one over McCain, whereas Rasmussen has him up two. However, Gallup has Clinton up two over McCain and Rasmussen has her up five. So, with only one post-Indiana and post-North Carolina day cranked in, there is no hint at all of a Clinton collapse. If the polls don't move at all in coming days, as it becomes clear that Obama will be the Democratic nominee, it could spell trouble for him. On the other hand, it's only May. The election is half a year away. May 8, 2008. Permalink
Posted at 6:51 a.m. ET
There is nothing new of significance to report this morning about the Democratic race. You all know the story. Hillary soldiers on in the hope that some Obama mistake will part the Red Sea and consume his pursuing voters, whereupon she can enter the Promised Land in a hybrid. Chances are, it won't happen, but Hillary can pray to the God of her choice, whose identity will differ depending on which group she's addressing. West Virginia votes Tuesday. There is no excitement. We'll be watching the trackers in the next four days to see if Obama's good result on Tuesday will lead to changes in his standing for the Dem nomination or in his national standings against McCain. Hillary has been holding her own in most polls. If she starts to fade, that can have a substantial psychological effect. We should be able to publish trackers by mid-afternoon ET. Meanwhile, George Will has a sound warning for Republicans who may read too much into statistical analyses of the voting thus far:
That's an astute observation. Obama is a street fighter with a velvet tongue. He can make himself sound tougher than McCain, even though McCain has walked the walk and Obama hasn't even crawled. Correction - hasn't even gotten out of the crib. May 8, 2008. Permalink We always look for things that can throw a race into turmoil. David Ignatius notes that Iran can play that role. He points out the recent spate of tough statements by American officials:
How would an American strike on Iran play out in the campaign?
Finally...
I'd be a bit more optimistic than Ignatius about how Americans would react to a strike on Iran. He mentions dissent in 1970, but 1970 wasn't a presidential election year, and the dissent was largely orchestrated by the militant left. Nixon won in a landslide two years later. Also, 9-11 still looms large. If Bush went beyond a strike at Iranian training camps and took out part of Iran's nuclear program, I suspect he'd win large public approval. Further, Obama would have to be very careful about criticizing an American military action against a hated regime, lest he be nailed as an unrepentant liberal in the McGovern tradition, which of course he is. There are some analysts who are beginning to speculate that Bush will not leave office with the Iranian threat unresolved. He could leave with a bang...literally. It would be worth it, just to read the hysterical New York Times editorial the next day. May 8, 2008. Permalink
More on the real world: London's Telegraph reveals a major security problem at Britain's airports:
I'd say so. The British government came out with an excuse that was outstanding for its bureaucratic artistry:
Feeling safer? Want to take that next vacation in Britain? This should encourage you:
In other words, a guy with a rap sheet in Egypt is treated exactly the way you are. Is that equality or what? Let's hear it for multicultural sensitivity. I said, let's hear it. I hear silence. May 8, 2008. Permalink
Finally, Irvine Robbins has died. He and his brother-in-law, Burton Baskin, founded Baskin-Robbins. For we who bear the calories of ice-cream addiction, this is a tragic day. I recall fondly, when my daughters were young, wheeling the stroller back from Baskin-Robbins with an ice-cream cake for their birthday parties. I always got one large enough to allow daddy to have fun for a week. So goodbye, Irvine Robbins. We won't see your flavors again. There's a Baskin-Robbins a few blocks from here. I'll go over and lay a memorial sundae in front of the hot-fudge maker, or whatever is proper. I'm sure they'll have grief counselors. May 8, 2008. Permalink
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